# GCC NDCs Compared: What Each Gulf State Has Promised Under the Paris Agreement > The six GCC climate pledges side by side, from the UNFCCC filings: target type, base year, conditionality, net zero and Article 6 for each Gulf state. **Source:** https://www.esgweise.com/insights/gcc-ndcs-compared/ **Author:** Sumit Agarwal **Published:** 2026-11-01 **Frameworks:** Paris Agreement, Article 6 **Countries:** UAE, KSA, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait --- ## Key points - Only two GCC states, the UAE and Oman, set absolute emissions targets against a base year. The UAE commits to -47% by 2035 against 2019; Oman to -7% unconditionally and -33% with support by 2035 against 2024. - Saudi Arabia (335 MtCO2e a year by 2040) and Qatar (42 MtCO2e by 2040) target a quantity of reductions, with no emissions level for the target year stated in the NDC. - Bahrain's NDC 3.0 has no greenhouse gas target. Kuwait's current NDC dates from 2021 and Kuwait has not filed its first Biennial Transparency Report. - The 2060 net zero year often quoted for Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Kuwait does not appear in any of their UNFCCC submissions. Only the UAE and Oman carry a net zero year, 2050, backed by a long-term strategy. --- ## Introduction Every Party to the Paris Agreement files a nationally determined contribution, or NDC: its climate target and the plan to reach it. Under Article 4 each NDC is renewed every five years, and each new one is meant to go further than the last. The 2025 round, "NDC 3.0", sets targets to 2035. All six GCC states have filed. Five have submitted a new NDC since late 2024; Kuwait's current NDC is its 2021 update. Read side by side, the six documents do not describe one regional approach. They use four different kinds of target, three base years and two target years. This article sets them out from the documents themselves, as filed in the [UNFCCC NDC Registry](https://unfccc.int/NDCREG). ## The comparison | | Current NDC | Target | Target year | Base or reference | Conditional? | Net zero year in UNFCCC filings | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | **UAE** | Third NDC, Nov 2024 | **-47%** absolute, economy-wide; 103.5 MtCO2e | 2035 | 2019: 196.3 MtCO2e | No | **2050** (long-term strategy filed) | | **Saudi Arabia** | Second NDC, Dec 2025 | Reduce, avoid and remove **335 MtCO2e a year** | 2040 | 2019, dynamic baseline; level not stated | Not on finance; tied to hydrocarbon export revenues | None stated | | **Qatar** | NDC 3.0, Nov 2025 | Mitigation actions worth **42 MtCO2e** | 2040 | 2019; no reference level | No | None stated | | **Kuwait** | Updated first NDC, Oct 2021 | **-7.4%** against BAU | 2035 | 2035 BAU of 142.3 MtCO2e | 7.4% unconditional | None; "low carbon economy by 2050" | | **Bahrain** | NDC 3.0, Dec 2025 | **No GHG target**: 20% renewable capacity, 3.6m trees, 1.6m mangrove seedlings | 2035 | By indicator | Whole NDC conditional on support | None stated | | **Oman** | NDC 3.0, Jul 2026 | **-7%** unconditional, **-33%** with support, absolute | 2035 | 2024: 93.6 MtCO2e | 26 of 33 points conditional | **2050** (long-term strategy filed) | ## Four kinds of target **Absolute targets: the UAE and Oman.** Both commit to a fixed cut against a fixed base year, which converts into an emissions level for the target year. The UAE prints that level: 103.5 MtCO2e in 2035, down from 196.3 MtCO2e in 2019, covering every domestic sector including land use. Oman's base year is unusually recent, 2024, at 93.6 MtCO2e. Its unconditional cut is 7%, and support from abroad would take it to 33%. **Tonnes of reductions: Saudi Arabia and Qatar.** Saudi Arabia commits to reduce, avoid and remove 335 MtCO2e a year by 2040, up from 278 MtCO2e by 2030 in its 2021 NDC, measured against a dynamic baseline whose scenarios depend on the path of the economy. Qatar commits to mitigation actions equal to 42 MtCO2e of reductions by 2040, and records its reference value as "not applicable". Neither document states what national emissions will be in 2040. **Deviation from business as usual: Kuwait.** Kuwait's 2021 NDC avoids 7.4% of projected 2035 emissions, about 10.6 MtCO2e from a business-as-usual level of 142.3 MtCO2e. That leaves a 2035 level of about 131.7 MtCO2e, well above the 86 MtCO2e of Kuwait's last published inventory (2016). **Non-GHG targets: Bahrain.** Bahrain's NDC 3.0 contains three 2035 targets: renewables at 20% of installed capacity (doubled from 10% in 2021), the number of trees raised from 1.8 to 3.6 million, and 1.6 million mangrove seedlings planted. It sets no emissions number, and the whole contribution is conditional on finance, technology and capacity support. The Paris Agreement replaced Kyoto's fixed targets with nationally chosen ones, on the condition that they can be compared and tracked. Across the GCC, that condition is not yet met. Every state that changed its NDC also changed its metric, and the progression figures the NDCs give for themselves compare targets with different target years or different references. ## Country by country ### United Arab Emirates The UAE's third NDC is the region's most complete. The cut of 47% by 2035 against 2019 is economy-wide, covers all seven greenhouse gases (F-gases for the first time), uses IPCC AR5 warming values and carries no conditional element. Sector pathways are printed: buildings fall 79%, industry 27% and transport 20% between 2019 and 2035, with power and water emissions allocated to the sectors that consume them. The target sits inside a filed long-term strategy for net zero by 2050, with interim steps of -62% by 2040 and -77% by 2045. The UAE may use Article 6 to partially fulfil its target. ### Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia's second NDC raises the headline from 278 to 335 MtCO2e a year and moves the target year from 2030 to 2040. It covers carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, and is expressed through a mix of GHG and non-GHG metrics. The 2021 aim of about 50% renewables in the power mix by 2030 is no longer in the document; the NDC reports 57.5 GW of renewables tendered and 12.3 GW connected instead. Carbon capture is a named lever, with a Jubail hub of 9 Mt a year by 2028. The NDC states that it is not contingent on international finance, but it is built on scenarios tied to hydrocarbon export revenues. It refers to net zero ambitions without giving a year. ### Qatar Qatar's NDC 3.0 moves from a 2021 target of 25% below business as usual by 2030 to 42 MtCO2e of reductions by 2040, across oil and gas, power and water, industry and construction, transport, and waste. It excludes F-gases. Named measures include 4 GW of renewable capacity by 2030, carbon capture at Ras Laffan (2.2 Mt a year, with a fivefold increase planned) and near-zero methane across oil and gas assets. Qatar states no net zero objective and puts domestic action ahead of Article 6. ### Kuwait Kuwait's NDC is the 2021 update, built on business-as-usual projections and the oldest IPCC warming values (Second Assessment Report). Kuwait has not filed an NDC 3.0, has not filed its first Biennial Transparency Report, due by the end of 2024, and has no long-term strategy. Under the Paris Agreement's compliance rules, a missing mandatory transparency report is one of the cases the Implementation and Compliance Committee takes up automatically. ### Bahrain Bahrain's NDC 3.0 is built on adaptation as much as mitigation. Alongside the three 2035 targets it carries a costed National Adaptation Investment Plan of USD 1.61 billion and a coastal resilience programme of USD 318 to 424 million, among the few cost figures in any GCC NDC. The document states that Bahrain cannot yet account for the emission reductions its measures produce. ### Oman Oman's NDC 3.0 is the only GCC contribution with a quantified split between unconditional and conditional effort, and the only one to cost its mitigation: USD 31.05 billion of capital expenditure for 2026 to 2035, of which USD 22.09 billion is conditional. It is built on IPCC AR6 values and sits inside a filed net zero strategy for 2050. Hydrogen is central: 1 Mt a year by 2030, rising to up to 8.5 Mt by 2050. Oman states an intention to use Articles 6.2, 6.4 and 6.8 and already has a designated national authority and registry. ## What the comparison shows **Net zero years in the filings are fewer than in the headlines.** The UAE and Oman carry 2050 in their NDCs and in filed long-term strategies. The 2060 year widely reported for Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Kuwait does not appear in any of their UNFCCC submissions. Qatar and Bahrain state no net zero objective at all. **Trade measures are now in the NDCs.** Saudi Arabia and Oman both name the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive as measures affecting implementation. Oman adds the CSRD and the Ecodesign Regulation. **Adaptation is present, but not formalised.** Every NDC has an adaptation section, yet none states that it serves as the adaptation communication foreseen in Article 7 of the Agreement. Only Kuwait and Bahrain have filed a National Adaptation Plan. **Everyone keeps Article 6 open.** All six reserve the option of international carbon markets, from Oman's operating registry to Kuwait's reliance on it for future ambition. See our guide to [Article 6 and carbon markets](/insights/article-6-paris-agreement-carbon-markets/). ## What it means for companies and banks A national target becomes corporate reality through sector budgets, regulation and carbon pricing. Where the NDC is absolute, as in the UAE and Oman, the national ceiling is known and sector pathways can be read from the document. Where it is expressed in tonnes avoided, as in Saudi Arabia and Qatar, the ceiling has to be inferred from the measures listed. For banks this matters directly. Transition risk scenarios under the [NGFS framework](/insights/climate-stress-testing-ngfs-gcc-banks/) and the [GCC central bank rules](/insights/gcc-central-banks-climate-risk-compared/) need a national policy path for each market a bank lends into. The NDC is the first place to find it, and in four of the six GCC states it has to be built up from sector measures rather than read off a single number. The same national path feeds [IFRS S2 climate disclosure and scenario analysis](/services/ifrs-s1-s2-climate-risk/), which asks companies to explain how expected policy will affect them. For companies, the national target arrives as reporting. In the UAE it already has: the [national carbon register under Cabinet Resolution 67/2024](/insights/cabinet-resolution-67-2024-uae-carbon-register/) and the [federal MRV platform](/insights/uae-mrv-platform-moccae-ieqt-ghg-reporting/) collect emissions data from companies. A [GHG inventory built to ISO 14064-1](/services/carbon/), [verified to ISO 14064-3](/services/iso-14064-ghg-verification/) and backed by [independent assurance](/services/assurance/) is what turns a company's contribution into figures a regulator, lender or buyer will accept. Our [sustainability reporting](/services/reporting/) work connects those figures to the disclosure frameworks in use across the region. ESGweise reads the national filings, not the press releases, when building transition scenarios, climate risk assessments and disclosures for GCC companies and financial institutions. If your portfolio spans several Gulf markets, the differences above shape the scenarios you can defend. *Sources: the current and previous NDCs of the six GCC states, their first Biennial Transparency Reports and long-term strategies, as filed with the UNFCCC and held at 31 October 2026.* --- ## Frequently asked questions ### Which GCC country has the most ambitious NDC? Ambition cannot be ranked directly, because the six NDCs use different metrics, base years and target years. The UAE's is the most complete: an absolute, economy-wide cut of 47% by 2035 against 2019, covering all seven greenhouse gases, with no conditional component and a printed 2035 emissions level of 103.5 MtCO2e. Oman's is the only one with a quantified conditional share: 7% unconditional, 33% with international support, against 2024. ### Does Saudi Arabia have a net zero target in its NDC? No year. Saudi Arabia's second NDC (December 2025) refers to its net zero ambitions but states no year, and the 2060 date announced by the government does not appear in its UNFCCC submissions. The NDC target is to reduce, avoid and remove 335 MtCO2e a year by 2040 against a dynamic baseline with 2019 as base year. ### What is Kuwait's NDC target? Kuwait's current NDC is its October 2021 update: avoid 7.4% of projected 2035 emissions against business as usual, about 10.6 MtCO2e from a BAU of 142.3 MtCO2e, unconditionally. Kuwait has not submitted an NDC 3.0 or its first Biennial Transparency Report, which was due by the end of 2024. ### Do GCC countries plan to use Article 6 carbon markets? All six keep the option open. Oman states an intention to engage under Articles 6.2, 6.4 and 6.8 and has a designated national authority and registry in place. The UAE may use Article 6 to partially meet its target. Saudi Arabia reserves the right but reports no agreements. Qatar puts domestic action first, Bahrain is considering it and Kuwait counts on it for future ambition. ### Why does the type of NDC target matter for companies? An absolute target converts into a national emissions ceiling, which in time becomes sector budgets, regulation and carbon pricing. A target expressed as tonnes avoided against a moving baseline leaves the national ceiling undefined. For banks and investors running transition risk scenarios, an absolute target gives a usable anchor; the others have to be modelled from sector measures. --- Published by ESGweise Global LLC, Dubai. https://www.esgweise.com