Sea level projections, flooded land and exposed people and assets for the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman, from their UNFCCC filings.
Introduction
Physical climate risk in the GCC is often discussed in terms of heat and water. The national filings to the UNFCCC show a third hazard just as clearly: the sea. Every GCC state names sea level rise as a material risk, and five of the six publish their own estimates of the land that would flood.
This article sets out what each country reports, taken from its National Communications, its first Biennial Transparency Report and, where one exists, its National Adaptation Plan. The figures are the governments’ own, which makes them the right starting point for any physical risk assessment of coastal assets in the region.
The national figures side by side
| Sea level projection in the filings | Flooded area | People and assets | Source | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UAE | Southern Gulf by 2099: 0.21 m low, 0.59 m medium, 0.81 m high, 2.0 m extreme | Inundation 2.26 to 3.81 km inland by 2100 | 85% of population and over 90% of infrastructure in low-lying coastal areas | BTR1 (2025), NDC 3.0 |
| Saudi Arabia | Cites NOAA (2017): global mean rise above 0.5 m by 2100 is 96% likely under RCP8.5 | Gulf coast: 613.9 km² at 1 m, 1,401.4 km² at 2 m, 2,216.5 km² at 3 m; Red Sea coast: about 890 km² within 1 m | Over 25 coastal cities on both seas; desalination on both coasts | NC4 (2022) |
| Qatar | AR6: 0.44 to 0.76 m (SSP2-4.5), 0.63 to 1.01 m (SSP5-8.5) by 2100; observed 3.0 to 5.0 mm a year | 173 km² at 1 m, 356 km² at 2 m, 685 km² at 3 m | About 80% of population in greater Doha | NC2 (2025), BTR1 (2026) |
| Kuwait | Baseline 0.5 m, with 1, 1.5 and 2 m variants | 214 km² at 0.5 m; 498 km² at 2 m | 30,453 people at 0.5 m; 527,462 (13.1%) at 2 m | NAP (2021) |
| Bahrain | 0.5 m above high water after 2050, plus a 1-in-500-year surge | 148.1 km², 19% of land (73.1 km², 9.3%, from today’s surge alone) | 18,058 assets (1,478 today) | BTR1 (2025), citing the 2023 Coastal Resilience Study |
| Oman | 0.26 to 0.55 m (RCP2.6), 0.52 to 0.98 m (RCP8.5) by 2100; storm surge 3 to 4 m minimum, nearly 6 m in Al Wusta | About 386 km² below 0.5 m; over 900 km² at 5 m | 80% of population in flood-prone coastal plains | NC2 (2019) |
Country by country
United Arab Emirates
The UAE’s first Biennial Transparency Report sets four sea level scenarios for the southern Gulf by 2099, from 0.21 m to an extreme 2.0 m, and observes Gulf sea level rising 0.18 to 0.23 cm a year. It projects inundation reaching 2.26 to 3.81 km inland by 2100, and up to 25 to 30 km in parts of Abu Dhabi in severe cases. The exposure is concentrated: the NDC 3.0 places 85% of the population and over 90% of infrastructure in low-lying coastal areas. The UAE also flags tropical cyclones entering its waters as a “grey swan”: low likelihood, high impact.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia faces two seas. Its fourth National Communication reports 613.9 km² of Arabian Gulf coastal land at 1 m elevation, rising to 2,216.5 km² at 3 m, and about 890 km² of Red Sea coast within 1 m. It runs case studies on two critical sites. At Yanbu, the Red Sea industrial and desalination hub, about 30% of the study area floods at 4 m. At the Ghazlan power plant on the Gulf, 4,128 MW and under 600 m from the shore, 14.4% of the area floods at 1 m and 41% at 2 m. Al Wajh, Jeddah and Jazan are named as the most vulnerable coastal cities.
Qatar
Qatar’s second National Communication (2025) measures sea level rising 3.0 to 5.0 mm a year between 1993 and 2022, and maps 173 km² flooded at 1 m, 356 km² at 2 m and 685 km² at 3 m. Its Biennial Transparency Report cites the IPCC AR6 range of up to 1.01 m by 2100 under high emissions. Qatar considers the global CMIP6 sea level projections implausibly low for its own waters and calls for site-specific studies. About 80% of the population lives in greater Doha, and about 23% of the land is low-lying.
Kuwait
Kuwait’s National Adaptation Plan takes 0.5 m as its baseline and tests 1, 1.5 and 2 m. Flooding grows from 214 km² at 0.5 m to 498 km² at 2 m, with about half of Boubyan Island under water in the higher case. People at risk rise from 30,453 to 527,462, or 13.1% of the population, because most Kuwaitis live within 20 km of the shore. The NDC states that 0.5 to 2 m of rise would cost Kuwait 1.4% to 3% of its coastal territory, affecting 5% of GDP.
Bahrain
Bahrain’s figures are the most asset-focused in the region. Its 2023 Coastal Resilience Study, reported in the first Biennial Transparency Report, finds that today’s 1-in-500-year surge would affect 73.1 km², 9.3% of the land, and 1,478 assets across 14 sectors. After 2050, with 0.5 m of sea level rise on top, the same event reaches 148.1 km², 19% of the land, and 18,058 assets. Reclamation has added about 115 km² of land since 1981 and modified over 80% of the coastline. Bahrain has costed a response: a coastal resilience programme of more than 200 interventions protecting about 140 km of coastline, at USD 318 to 424 million.
Oman
Oman’s risk is as much storm surge as sea level rise. Its second National Communication projects 0.52 to 0.98 m of rise by 2100 under high emissions and about 386 km² flooded below 0.5 m, rising to over 900 km² at 5 m. Storm surge reaches 3 to 4 m along the coast and nearly 6 m in Al Wusta. Cyclone Gonu in 2007 caused 50 deaths and about USD 4.2 billion of damage, and the NDC 3.0 puts climate-related losses from 2002 to 2021 at about USD 7.30 billion. Around 80% of the population lives on flood-prone coastal plains, and 98.5% of the Al Batinah coast sits in the highest coastal vulnerability class.
What it means for physical risk work
The national filings do three things for a bank, insurer, developer or infrastructure owner:
- They define the hazard in the government’s own terms. A physical risk assessment that uses the same scenarios as the national filing is easier to defend to a regulator or auditor.
- They name the hotspots. Abu Dhabi’s coastal shallows, the Ghazlan and Yanbu industrial coasts, greater Doha, Kuwait’s middle and southern coast and Boubyan, Bahrain’s reclaimed land, and Oman’s Al Batinah and Al Wusta coasts.
- They show where adaptation spending is coming. Bahrain’s coastal programme, Kuwait’s National Adaptation Plan and the coastal measures in each NDC point to future construction, regulation and setback rules.
They do not replace asset-level analysis. Collateral and underwriting decisions need flood modelling at the level of the plot, building or plant, because the national figures use coarse resolutions and some rest on studies that are not published in full. For banks reporting under IFRS S2, the national figures belong in the narrative on physical risk and in the choice of scenarios; the asset-level results belong in the numbers.
For the policy side of the same filings, see GCC NDCs compared and what your country’s NDC means for your bank’s climate risk. For adaptation standards, see our guide to ISO 14090 and 14091.
Sources: National Communications, first Biennial Transparency Reports, NDCs and National Adaptation Plans of the six GCC states, as filed with the UNFCCC and held at 31 October 2026.
Frequently asked questions
How much will sea levels rise in the Gulf?
The national filings give ranges by 2100. The UAE's first Biennial Transparency Report uses 0.21 m (low), 0.59 m (medium), 0.81 m (high) and 2.0 m (extreme) for the southern Gulf by 2099. Qatar cites IPCC AR6 values of 0.44 to 0.76 m under SSP2-4.5 and 0.63 to 1.01 m under SSP5-8.5. Oman reports 0.26 to 0.55 m under RCP2.6 and 0.52 to 0.98 m under RCP8.5.
Which GCC country is most exposed to sea level rise?
On the countries' own figures, Bahrain stands out relative to its size: its 2023 coastal resilience study finds that a 1-in-500-year surge after 2050, on top of 0.5 m of rise, would affect 148.1 km², 19% of its land, and 18,058 assets. The UAE reports 85% of its population and over 90% of its infrastructure on the coast. The figures are not directly comparable because each country uses a different method.
How much land would Saudi Arabia lose to sea level rise?
Saudi Arabia's fourth National Communication reports 613.9 km² of Arabian Gulf coastal land at 1 m elevation, 1,401.4 km² at 2 m and 2,216.5 km² at 3 m, plus about 890 km² of Red Sea coastal land within 1 m elevation. It also models flooding at Yanbu and at the Ghazlan power plant.
Can banks use national sea level figures for physical risk?
As a starting point. They identify the hazard, the scenarios the government itself uses and the coastal zones at most risk. Credit and collateral decisions need asset-level flood modelling, because the national figures use different scenarios and resolutions and some rely on studies that are not published in full.