What the COP28 global stocktake asked of national climate plans, how the six GCC NDC 3.0 submissions measure against it, and what the second stocktake in 2028 means.
Introduction
The Paris Agreement runs on a five-year cycle: countries file NDCs, report on them, and every five years take stock of collective progress before filing the next round. The first global stocktake concluded at COP28 in Dubai in December 2023, under a UAE presidency. Its outcome, decision 1/CMA.5, was meant to shape the 2025 round of NDCs, known as NDC 3.0.
The GCC has now largely responded. This article sets out what the stocktake asked for, how the six GCC NDCs measure against it, and what the next cycle means for companies.
What the stocktake asked for
The science benchmark (paragraph 27). Limiting warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot requires global greenhouse gas emissions to fall 43% by 2030 and 60% by 2035 against 2019, and net zero carbon dioxide by 2050.
The global efforts (paragraph 28). Parties are called on to contribute, in a nationally determined manner and taking account of national circumstances, to:
| Global effort | |
|---|---|
| (a) | Tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling the rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030 |
| (b) | Phase-down of unabated coal power |
| (c) | Net zero emission energy systems well before or by around mid-century |
| (d) | Transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, to achieve net zero by 2050 |
| (e) | Zero- and low-emission technologies, including renewables, nuclear, carbon capture, utilisation and storage, and low-carbon hydrogen |
| (f) | Substantial reduction of non-CO2 emissions, in particular methane, by 2030 |
| (g) | Lower road transport emissions, including zero- and low-emission vehicles |
| (h) | Phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that do not address energy poverty or just transitions |
Paragraph 29 adds that transitional fuels can play a role in facilitating the energy transition while ensuring energy security.
The ask of NDCs (paragraphs 39 and 40). Parties are encouraged to bring forward ambitious, economy-wide emission reduction targets covering all greenhouse gases, sectors and categories, aligned with 1.5°C, and to align their NDCs with their long-term low-emission strategies.
The timing (paragraph 166). Next NDCs to be submitted at least 9 to 12 months before CMA 7 in November 2025.
How the GCC NDC 3.0 submissions compare
| Submitted | Economy-wide GHG target | All gases | Aligned with filed long-term strategy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UAE | Nov 2024 | Yes: -47% by 2035 vs 2019 | Yes, all seven | Yes (net zero 2050) |
| Oman | Jul 2026 | Yes: -7% unconditional, -33% conditional, by 2035 vs 2024 | CO2, CH4, N2O | Yes (net zero 2050) |
| Saudi Arabia | Dec 2025 | Tonnes reduced, avoided and removed by 2040, dynamic baseline | CO2, CH4, N2O | No strategy filed |
| Qatar | Nov 2025 | Tonnes of reductions by 2040 | CO2, CH4, N2O; F-gases excluded | No strategy filed |
| Bahrain | Dec 2025 | No GHG target | Not applicable | No strategy filed |
| Kuwait | Not submitted | 2021 NDC: -7.4% vs business as usual | CO2, CH4, N2O | No strategy filed |
Only the UAE submitted within the window paragraph 166 recalls. The UAE’s NDC 3.0 is also the only GCC submission that meets each of the stocktake’s NDC asks: economy-wide, all gases, a 2035 target, and alignment with a filed long-term strategy. Oman meets three of the four, with gas coverage limited to the three main gases.
Which global efforts the GCC took up
Renewables and efficiency (28a). Four GCC NDCs put a number on renewables: the UAE’s 19.8 GW by 2030, Saudi Arabia’s 57.5 GW tendered, Qatar’s 4 GW by 2030 and Bahrain’s 20% of capacity by 2035.
Carbon capture and hydrogen (28e). These are the region’s most prominent levers: ADNOC’s 10 million tonnes a year of capture by 2030 in the UAE NDC, Saudi Arabia’s Jubail hub at 9 million tonnes a year by 2028, Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility with a fivefold expansion planned, and Oman’s low-carbon hydrogen target of 1 million tonnes a year by 2030, rising to as much as 8.5 million tonnes by 2050.
Methane (28f). Qatar targets near-zero methane across oil and gas assets, Saudi Arabia near-zero routine flaring. National inventories show that waste, not oil and gas, is the largest methane source in four of the five GCC states with a first Biennial Transparency Report. See Biennial Transparency Reports explained.
Trade measures. Saudi Arabia’s and Oman’s NDCs name the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive as measures that may affect implementation.
What comes next
| When | Step |
|---|---|
| November 2026 (CMA 8) | Second global stocktake begins: information collection and preparation |
| 2026 onward | Second Biennial Transparency Reports (two years after the first) |
| 2028 (CMA 10) | Second stocktake concludes |
| 2030 | Next round of NDCs, informed by the second stocktake |
Kuwait’s NDC 3.0 and first Biennial Transparency Report remain outstanding. The second stocktake will assess collective progress against the same benchmarks: 43% by 2030 and 60% by 2035.
What it means for companies
National targets set in NDC 3.0 become sector policy over the next five years: renewable procurement, efficiency standards, methane rules, carbon registers and, in time, carbon pricing. Companies in power, oil and gas, industry, transport and real estate should expect their national reporting and abatement obligations to tighten through the second stocktake cycle.
For the targets each state filed, see GCC NDCs compared. For their effect on lending, see what your country’s NDC means for your bank’s climate risk. For the status of net zero years, see GCC net zero targets.
Sources: decision 1/CMA.5, Outcome of the first global stocktake (FCCC/PA/CMA/2023/16/Add.1); Paris Agreement, Article 14; NDCs and first Biennial Transparency Reports of the six GCC states, as held at 2 November 2026.
Frequently asked questions
What is the global stocktake?
The global stocktake under Article 14 of the Paris Agreement assesses collective progress towards the Agreement's goals every five years. Its outcome informs the next round of NDCs. The first stocktake concluded at COP28 in Dubai in December 2023 with decision 1/CMA.5.
What did the COP28 global stocktake say about fossil fuels?
Paragraph 28 of decision 1/CMA.5 calls on Parties to contribute, in a nationally determined manner, to global efforts including transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science. Paragraph 29 recognises that transitional fuels can play a role in facilitating the energy transition while ensuring energy security.
When were NDC 3.0 submissions due?
Decision 1/CMA.5 recalls that Parties shall submit their next NDCs at least 9 to 12 months before the seventh session of the CMA in November 2025. Of the GCC states, the UAE submitted in November 2024. Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Bahrain submitted in November and December 2025, Oman in July 2026, and Kuwait had not submitted by 2 November 2026.
When is the next global stocktake?
The information collection and preparation component of the second global stocktake starts at the eighth session of the CMA in November 2026, and its consideration of outputs concludes at the tenth session, in 2028. Its outcome will inform the NDCs due in 2030.