What the COP29 climate finance goal says, the USD 1.3 trillion Baku to Belém Roadmap, and why it matters for GCC states as contributors, recipients and investors.
Introduction
For fifteen years the headline number in climate finance was USD 100 billion a year, pledged by developed countries in 2009 for 2020. At COP29 in Baku in November 2024, Parties to the Paris Agreement replaced it with a new collective quantified goal, the NCQG, set out in decision 1/CMA.6.
The new goal matters in the GCC in three ways: the region’s states are encouraged to contribute, some of them expect support for their own NDCs, and GCC banks and investors sit in the private flows the goal depends on.
What the decision says
| Element | Decision 1/CMA.6 |
|---|---|
| Core goal | At least USD 300 billion a year by 2035 for developing countries, with developed countries taking the lead (paragraph 8) |
| Sources | A wide variety of sources, public and private, bilateral and multilateral, including alternative sources |
| Development banks | Recognises Parties’ voluntary intention to count all climate-related outflows from, and finance mobilised by, multilateral development banks towards the goal |
| Broader call | All actors to work together to scale finance to developing countries from all public and private sources to at least USD 1.3 trillion a year by 2035 (paragraph 7) |
| Developing country contributions | Encouraged, on a voluntary basis, including through South-South cooperation (paragraph 9); nothing affects any Party’s development or recipient status (paragraph 10) |
| Climate funds | A significant increase of public resources through the GCF and GEF, the Adaptation Fund, the LDCF and the SCCF, and efforts to at least triple their annual outflows from 2022 levels by 2030 (paragraph 16) |
| Balance | Scaled-up finance should aim for a balance between adaptation and mitigation |
| Roadmap | The Baku to Belém Roadmap to 1.3T, led by the COP29 and COP30 presidencies, to scale finance through grants, concessional and non-debt-creating instruments and fiscal space measures |
The core goal extends the USD 100 billion commitment under Article 9 of the Paris Agreement. The USD 1.3 trillion figure is a call to all actors, not an obligation on any Party.
The GCC as contributors
Under the UNFCCC, the six GCC states are developing country Parties. The NCQG does not change that. It does encourage developing countries to contribute on a voluntary basis, including through South-South cooperation, and states that doing so does not affect any Party’s status.
The region has already moved in this direction. The UAE’s third NDC records the launch at COP28 of ALTÉRRA, a USD 30 billion climate investment fund intended to catalyse USD 250 billion of investment by 2030.
The GCC as recipients
Some GCC NDCs depend on international support. Oman’s NDC 3.0 makes 26 of its 33 percentage points of emission reduction conditional on support, and costs its mitigation at USD 31.05 billion for 2026 to 2035, of which USD 22.09 billion is conditional. Bahrain’s whole NDC 3.0 is conditional on means of implementation, and its National Adaptation Investment Plan is costed at about USD 1.61 billion.
Access is the constraint. Of the 393 projects in the Green Climate Fund’s portfolio, one is in the GCC, in Bahrain. The NCQG’s focus on tripling the funds’ outflows, simplifying access and reducing conditionalities is aimed at exactly this gap. See GCC NDCs compared for each country’s conditional share.
The GCC as a market
The USD 300 billion is mobilised through public and private channels, and the USD 1.3 trillion depends heavily on private capital. For GCC banks, investors and companies, that means:
- Co-financing alongside development banks and climate funds, where public money takes first-loss or guarantee positions and private lenders take the senior tranche. The Green Climate Fund’s guarantee initiatives are built on this model.
- Labelled debt: green, sustainability and sustainability-linked bonds and loans, where taxonomies and assurance define what counts.
- Carbon markets under Article 6, which every GCC NDC keeps open as a source of finance and ambition.
- Alignment of the wider balance sheet, because the NCQG sits on top of Article 2.1(c), the Paris goal of making all finance flows consistent with a low-emission, climate-resilient pathway.
What to watch
- The Baku to Belém Roadmap: how it proposes to reach USD 1.3 trillion, and what it asks of private finance and of new contributors.
- Reporting: how developed countries, development banks and voluntary contributors report finance towards the goal under the Paris transparency framework. See Biennial Transparency Reports explained.
- Access reforms at the GCF, GEF and Adaptation Fund that would change how GCC entities can work with them.
Sources: decision 1/CMA.6, New collective quantified goal on climate finance (FCCC/PA/CMA/2024/17/Add.1); Paris Agreement, Article 9; NDCs of the UAE, Oman and Bahrain; Green Climate Fund open data, 30 October 2026.
Frequently asked questions
What is the NCQG?
The new collective quantified goal on climate finance is the goal adopted at COP29 in Baku in November 2024 (decision 1/CMA.6) to succeed the USD 100 billion a year goal. Developed countries take the lead in mobilising at least USD 300 billion a year by 2035 for developing countries, from public and private, bilateral and multilateral sources. A broader call asks all actors to scale finance to developing countries to at least USD 1.3 trillion a year by 2035.
Do GCC countries have to contribute to the USD 300 billion?
No. Under the UNFCCC the GCC states are developing country Parties. Decision 1/CMA.6 encourages developing countries to make contributions on a voluntary basis, including through South-South cooperation, and states that this does not affect any Party's development or recipient status.
What is the Baku to Belém Roadmap?
The Baku to Belém Roadmap to 1.3T is a process launched under decision 1/CMA.6 by the COP29 and COP30 presidencies, in consultation with Parties, to scale climate finance to developing countries towards USD 1.3 trillion a year, including through grants, concessional and non-debt-creating instruments and measures to create fiscal space.
Does the NCQG include the Loss and Damage Fund?
The goal itself covers climate action broadly. The specific aim to at least triple annual outflows by 2030 from 2022 levels names the operating entities of the Financial Mechanism (the Green Climate Fund and the Global Environment Facility), the Adaptation Fund, the Least Developed Countries Fund and the Special Climate Change Fund. The Loss and Damage Fund is not among the funds named in that paragraph.