Only Kuwait and Bahrain have filed a National Adaptation Plan. Where each GCC state stands on adaptation planning, and where to find usable physical risk data instead.
Introduction
Article 7.9 of the Paris Agreement asks every country to engage in adaptation planning, including through a National Adaptation Plan, or NAP. A NAP sets out what a country expects climate change to do to it and what it plans to do about it: the hazards, the sectors at risk, the measures and, often, the cost.
For anyone assessing physical climate risk in the GCC, a NAP would be the natural first source. Most GCC states do not have one yet. This article sets out where each stands, what the two existing plans contain, and where the usable hazard data sits for the other four.
Where each state stands
| National Adaptation Plan | Other adaptation framework | Lead institution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | Filed: NAP 2019 to 2030 (referred to in the NDC as the February 2021 NAP) | Environment Protection Law 42/2014 | Kuwait Environment Public Authority |
| Bahrain | Filed: National Adaptation Investment Plan, published August 2025 | Coastal resilience strategy (2023); National Water Strategy 2030 | Supreme Council for Environment |
| UAE | Not yet filed: NAP Roadmap launched at COP28; NAP “will be finalised in 2025” (BTR1) | National Climate Change Plan 2017 to 2050; National Climate Change Adaptation Programme; 2019 climate risk assessment | Ministry of Climate Change and Environment |
| Oman | In preparation: initiated December 2022 with Green Climate Fund readiness funding | National Strategy for Adaptation and Mitigation 2020 to 2040 | Environment Authority |
| Qatar | In development: horizons 2030 and 2040, six sectors | National Environment and Climate Change Strategy (2021) | Ministry of Environment and Climate Change |
| Saudi Arabia | None | No named national adaptation strategy; NDC lists adaptation contributions | Sector ministries and agencies |
None of the six has designated any document as its adaptation communication under Articles 7.10 and 7.11, the report that tells the UNFCCC a country’s adaptation priorities and needs. Oman’s Biennial Transparency Report says so explicitly.
The two plans that exist
Kuwait
Kuwait’s NAP covers four sectors: marine and fisheries, water resources, coastal zones and human health. It proposes 56 initiatives (21 short term, 18 medium term, 17 long term), including a coastal management centre, sea level rise barriers, stronger coastal law and a requirement to design new projects near high-risk coastline to withstand sea level rise. Its hazard analysis is quantified: 0.5 m of sea level rise floods 214 km² and 2 m floods 498 km², putting up to 527,462 people, 13.1% of the population, at risk. It also records 21 sand and dust storm days a year on average. The plan predates Kuwait’s NDC 3.0, which has not yet been filed.
Bahrain
Bahrain’s National Adaptation Investment Plan is a costed plan. It prioritises four sectors and sits alongside a coastal resilience strategy concluded in 2023. The NDC puts the plan’s cost at about USD 1.61 billion and the coastal programme at USD 318 to 424 million, for more than 200 physical and non-physical interventions protecting about 140 km of coastline. Bahrain’s coastal study found that a 1-in-500-year surge after 2050, on top of 0.5 m of sea level rise, would affect 19% of the country’s land and 18,058 assets. Building codes since 2009 already require new developments to account for sea level rise.
The four without a filed NAP
The UAE has the most developed framework without a filed plan. Its adaptation programme dates from 2018 to 2019, its 2019 climate risk assessment covers health, energy, infrastructure and the environment, and its first Biennial Transparency Report gives some of the region’s most detailed hazard figures: 1.8°C of observed warming between 1900 and 2020, national projections of 2.1 to 2.8°C by 2050, and southern Gulf sea level scenarios up to 2.0 m by 2099.
Oman started its NAP in December 2022 with Green Climate Fund readiness support. It has the clearest exposure to acute events in the region: storm surge of 3 to 4 m along the coast and nearly 6 m in Al Wusta, cyclone losses of about USD 7.30 billion between 2002 and 2021, and projections of over 110 extra days a year above 45°C in Al Dhahirah by 2100 under high emissions.
Qatar describes its NAP, in development, as its primary mechanism for meeting its Paris adaptation commitments. Its second National Communication (2025) and first Biennial Transparency Report (2026) are the most recent hazard analyses in the region, including flooded areas of 173 km² at 1 m and 685 km² at 3 m of sea level rise.
Saudi Arabia has no NAP. Its fourth National Communication (2022) carries detailed coastal analysis, including 613.9 km² of Gulf coastal land at 1 m elevation and case studies of Yanbu and the Ghazlan power plant, and its NDC groups adaptation into measures with and without mitigation co-benefits.
What it means for physical risk assessment
Use the government’s hazard figures as the starting point. A physical risk assessment that adopts the scenarios and hazard ranges in the national filings is easier to defend to a supervisor or auditor. Our summary of each country’s sea level figures is a place to start.
Map hazards to acute and chronic risk. In the GCC, acute risks are flash floods, storm surge, cyclones (Oman and, rarely, the UAE) and dust storms. Chronic risks are rising temperatures and extreme heat, sea level rise, water stress and sea warming. Both feed credit risk through collateral values, operating costs and business interruption.
Watch adaptation spending. Where plans exist, they signal future regulation and investment: Bahrain’s coastal programme, Kuwait’s coastal law and setback measures, and the coastal standards each NDC names. Those shape asset values and the cost of building near the shore.
Go to asset level for decisions. National figures describe the hazard at a coarse scale. Underwriting, collateral valuation and capital decisions need asset-level analysis. For banks reporting under IFRS S2, the national data supports the narrative and the scenario choice; the asset-level results support the numbers. For a structured method, see our guide to ISO 14090 and 14091 on climate adaptation.
Sources: National Adaptation Plans of Kuwait and Bahrain; National Communications, first Biennial Transparency Reports and NDCs of the six GCC states; UNFCCC NAP Central. All as held at 2 November 2026.
Frequently asked questions
Which GCC countries have a National Adaptation Plan?
Kuwait and Bahrain. Kuwait's NAP (cover dated 2019, referred to in its NDC as the February 2021 NAP) proposes 56 initiatives across four sectors. Bahrain's National Adaptation Investment Plan, published in August 2025, costs its adaptation needs at about USD 1.61 billion. Both are listed on the UNFCCC's NAP Central.
Does the UAE have a National Adaptation Plan?
Not yet filed. The UAE launched a NAP Roadmap at COP28 in November 2023 and its first Biennial Transparency Report states that the National Adaptation Plan will be finalised in 2025. At 2 November 2026 no UAE NAP was listed on NAP Central. The UAE runs a National Climate Change Adaptation Programme and a 2019 climate risk assessment covering health, energy, infrastructure and environment.
What is a National Adaptation Plan?
A National Adaptation Plan is the process, set out under the UNFCCC and referred to in Article 7.9 of the Paris Agreement, through which a country identifies its medium- and long-term adaptation needs and the strategies and programmes to address them. NAPs are submitted to the UNFCCC and published on NAP Central.
Where can I find physical climate risk data for GCC countries without a NAP?
In the vulnerability and adaptation chapters of each country's National Communication and in the adaptation chapter of its first Biennial Transparency Report. Saudi Arabia's fourth National Communication, Qatar's second National Communication and first BTR, Oman's second National Communication and first BTR, and the UAE's first BTR all give quantified hazard figures such as temperature projections, sea level scenarios and flooded areas.