COP31 in Antalya: What It Is, Who Runs It and What Is at Stake for GCC Companies

Introduction

COP31 opens in Antalya, Türkiye, on Monday 9 November and runs to 20 November 2026. This is the position on 8 November. The talks will move.

What a COP is

A COP is a Conference of the Parties, the annual decision-making meeting of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. In Antalya three governing bodies meet together: the COP itself, the Kyoto Protocol parties and the Paris Agreement parties, known as CMA 8, with two subsidiary bodies alongside.

COP decisions are addressed to governments. A company feels them only when a national regulator, a lender or a trading partner acts on them. Read everything below with that in mind.

Who runs it

The arrangement is unusual. Türkiye hosts, and the COP30 President will call for the election of Murat Kurum as President of the conference. Under the Türkiye-Australia Partnership Modalities of November 2025, Kurum delegates the talks to Australia’s Chris Bowen as President of Negotiations, with “exclusive authority in relation to the negotiations”, including draft texts. Türkiye keeps the host logistics and the Action Agenda. Australia and Pacific island countries ran the pre-COP in Fiji in October, with a leaders’ event in Tuvalu.

The Modalities send any difference of view between the two countries to consultation until it is resolved to mutual satisfaction. Who has the last word on a contested final text is the procedural question to watch.

Heads of state speak at the Leaders Summit on 11 and 12 November. Ministers return for the second part of the high-level segment on 17 and 18 November.

The United States left the Paris Agreement on 27 January 2026, and its exit from the convention takes effect on 27 February 2027. It is not sending an official government delegation.

What is on the table

Keep two lists apart: what is being negotiated, and what the Presidency is promoting.

The formal agenda. These items are in the provisional CMA agenda and can produce a negotiated decision.

• Adaptation. The global goal on adaptation, including work on the Belém Adaptation Indicators. COP30 called for efforts to at least triple adaptation finance by 2035. See what this means in our note on GCC national adaptation plans.
• Finance. A two-year work programme including Article 9.1, plus an item on Article 2.1(c), the clause on aligning finance flows with climate goals.
• Article 6. Items on Article 6.2 cooperative approaches, the Article 6.4 mechanism, non-market approaches and funding for the Article 6.2 infrastructure.
• Mitigation work programme. Its mandate runs to this session, which must decide whether it continues. The June talks in Bonn ended without agreement.
• Just transition. The Presidency wants the mechanism’s functions and governance agreed, alongside a review of the UAE just transition work programme.
• Loss and damage. The Fund’s report and guidance, with the Presidency expecting the first funding approvals later this year. See our guide to loss and damage for GCC business.

The second global stocktake begins at COP31 and concludes in 2028.

Fossil fuel phase-out is not a stand-alone item in the provisional agendas. It surfaces through the stocktake, the mitigation work programme and any overarching decision. On 3 November Brazil’s COP30 Presidency published a roadmap on transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems. The Presidency describes it as voluntary and not subject to negotiation.

The Presidency’s initiatives. The third Presidency letter sets ten Action Agenda themes. The centrepiece is a voluntary pledge, “35 by 35”, to raise electricity from around 23% of global final energy to 35% by 2035. A Climate Implementation Bridge, which the Presidency says is not a new fund, is meant to connect country project pipelines with finance. The fourth letter says these initiatives create no new obligations. Carbon Brief reports that the negotiating presidency may try to carry some of them, such as the electrification goal, into an overarching decision.

Where things stand

National plans. The UNFCCC synthesis of 27 October covers 154 Parties to 31 August 2026 and about 71% of global emissions. Those plans would put 2035 emissions about 6% below 2019.

Temperature. UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2026 puts full delivery of national plans at 2.6°C this century. Current policies point to 2.8°C. Staying near 1.5°C now means overshooting and coming back, with a peak of 1.7 to 1.8°C in UNEP’s lowest case.

The agenda. Five items have been added to the provisional agendas since October. The African Group wants tripling of adaptation finance, the trade dialogue and Green Climate Fund resourcing on the agenda; mountain countries want two items of their own. None is adopted until the opening plenary agrees, so 9 November is the first test.

Adaptation money. UNEP’s Adaptation Gap Report puts needs at USD 305 billion a year by 2035. Tripling would cover 20 to 29% of that. The Loss and Damage Fund’s first round drew requests of USD 2.8 billion against USD 342 million.

What GCC companies and banks should watch

No GCC government had published a formal COP31 position paper by 8 November. Qatar’s climate undersecretary told QNA that Qatar seeks balance among emissions cuts, adaptation and finance, and that emissions can be cut without requiring countries to give up particular fuels.

Trade. COP30 reaffirmed that unilateral climate measures should not be disguised trade restrictions and set a dialogue running to June 2028. Nothing in Antalya can change EU law, so GCC exporters of steel, aluminium and fertiliser should plan on the existing CBAM dates: certificate sales from 1 February 2027 and first surrender on 30 September 2027.

Carbon markets. The synthesis shows 94% of Parties plan to or may use Article 6 cooperation, and all six GCC NDCs keep that option. The Article 6.2 funding decision, including possible user fees, will affect the cost of participating.

Reporting. Second national transparency reports are due by 31 December 2026, and the Presidency plans a declaration on them. Expect national inventory teams to ask large emitters and utilities for better data.

Physical risk. Only Kuwait and Bahrain have filed a national adaptation plan or investment plan. Banks and real estate lenders should map hazards against assets now and not wait for official indicators.

Electrification. If a GCC government signs 35 by 35, treat it as a planning signal for utilities and heavy industry, not an obligation.

Read the adopted decisions when the UNFCCC publishes them after the close. Early headlines will not settle anything.

Sources: UNFCCC provisional agendas FCCC/CP/2026/1 and FCCC/PA/CMA/2026/1 with addenda to 6 November 2026; Türkiye-Australia Partnership Modalities (November 2025); COP31 Presidency letters; decision 1/CMA.7; NDC synthesis report FCCC/PA/CMA/2026/9; UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2026 and Adaptation Gap Report 2026; UN depositary notification C.N.102.2026; Congressional Research Service R48504; COP30 Presidency roadmap announcement (3 November 2026); Council on Foreign Relations; Carbon Brief; ClearBlue Markets; Qatar News Agency interview as carried by Gulf Times. Correct as of 8 November 2026.